Assessment of Offending During Leave: Development of the Leave Risk Assessment in a Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Abstract

The Leave Risk Assessment (LRA) is an actuarial risk assessment tool composed of both historical and treatment-related subscales, developed to assess the risk of serious reoffending by forensic psychiatric patients. This study examines the psychometric properties of the Leave Risk Assessment. The sample was drawn from the same population on which the tool was developed consisting of 195 Dutch forensic psychiatric patients; 78 who re-offended during leave and 117 non-reoffenders. The Leave Risk Assessment had moderate predictive validity (AUC = .84) as well as incremental predictive value over the HCR-20. The results show that the LRA can have a significant contribution in the decision-making process regarding authorized leave.

Keywords:

• risk assessment
• actuarial assessment
• context risk assessment
• forensic patients

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Anders Tengström and Makenzie Chilton for their comments on earlier versions of this article.

Editor's Note. I am sad to report that Martien W. G. Philipse passed away on April 18, 2011, after a lengthy illness. Martien was a regular attendee and presenter at academic and professional meetings, including IAFMHS conferences. He will be missed, but remembered fondly, by many of us.