Do the Static-99 and Static-99R Perform Similarly for White, Black, and Latino Sexual Offenders?

Abstract

The Static-99 is the most widely used sex offender risk assessment measure in the world, but predictive effects for the Static-99 have been relatively low in several U.S. samples, particularly in states with high levels of racial or ethnic diversity. The current study uses data from one of the largest predictive validity studies of Static-99 in the U.S. to examine whether Static-99 and Static-99R scores predict recidivism similarly for White (n = 912), Black (n = 411), and Latino (n = 588) offenders. Although predictive effects with both measures were, at times, large enough to reach statistical significance for White and Black offenders, they were never large enough to reach significance for Latino offenders. On the Static-99R, the measure recommended for use in practice, AUC values ranged from .62 to .69 (d = .43 to .71) for Black offenders, .59 to .65 (d = .33 to .56) for White offenders, but only .56 to .58 (d = .17 to .33) for Latino offenders. Findings have implications for fairness in testing and highlight the need for continued research regarding the potentially moderating role of offender race/ethnicity in risk research.

Keywords:

• Static-99
• Static-99R
• sex offenders
• racial diversity
• ethnic diversity
• recidivism

Acknowledgments

Jennifer D. Caperton is now a psychologist at the Federal Correctional Institution, Seagoville, Texas.

This research is based, in part, on Jennifer D. Caperton's doctoral dissertation, completed at Sam Houston State University.

Notes

Findings from the one published study examining Static-99R scores in a U.S. sample are consistent with the overall pattern of effects for the Static-99 documented in Table 1, showing relatively strong predictive effects (AUC = .62 to .80) among a group of predominantly White (96.4%) offenders (McGrath, Lasher, & Cumming, 2012).

We used an online calculator for these analyses: http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/roc_comp.html