The Validity of the Cracow Instrument in the Prediction of Antisocial Development in Preschool Children: A Five-Year Longitudinal Community-Based Study

ABSTRACT

Risk-focused early intervention is a very promising approach for preventing antisocial development in childhood and youth. Therefore, at a NATO Advanced Study Institute the Cracow Instrument was developed (Corrado, 2002). The Cracow Instrument is a developmentally based risk management instrument designed to identify children and youth at-risk for serious and violent antisocial behavior. The current study examines the prospective validity of the Cracow Instrument utilizing the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (e.g., Lösel, Stemmler, & Bender, 2013). At the first assessment, the community sample contained 675 male and female children at preschool age (M = 4.7 years). For example, for a broad scale on externalizing problems the predictive validity was r = .52 (AUC = .78) after one year and r = .42 (AUC = .75) after five years. Overall, the predictive validity of the Cracow Instrument was satisfactory. Implications for its practical application in risk management are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Risk management
• antisocial behavior
• Cracow Instrument
• predictive validity
• developmental criminology

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Andreas Beelmann, Sabine Beer, Doris Bender, Stefanie Hacker, Stefanie Jaursch, Antje Klindworth-Mohr, Ute Koglin, and Daniela Runkel for their work on the project. We also gratefully acknowledge the long-term cooperation of the families participating in the ENDPS.

Additional information

Funding

This article contains findings from the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (ENDPS), which was supported by grants from the German Federal Ministry of Family Affairs, the European Commission, the German Red Cross, various German Federal States, and other institutions.