ABSTRACT
Risk-focused early intervention is a very promising approach for preventing antisocial development in childhood and youth. Therefore, at a NATO Advanced Study Institute the Cracow Instrument was developed (Corrado, 2002). The Cracow Instrument is a developmentally based risk management instrument designed to identify children and youth at-risk for serious and violent antisocial behavior. The current study examines the prospective validity of the Cracow Instrument utilizing the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (e.g., Lösel, Stemmler, & Bender, 2013). At the first assessment, the community sample contained 675 male and female children at preschool age (M = 4.7 years). For example, for a broad scale on externalizing problems the predictive validity was r = .52 (AUC = .78) after one year and r = .42 (AUC = .75) after five years. Overall, the predictive validity of the Cracow Instrument was satisfactory. Implications for its practical application in risk management are discussed.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank Andreas Beelmann, Sabine Beer, Doris Bender, Stefanie Hacker, Stefanie Jaursch, Antje Klindworth-Mohr, Ute Koglin, and Daniela Runkel for their work on the project. We also gratefully acknowledge the long-term cooperation of the families participating in the ENDPS.