Presumed Media Influences and Demands for Restrictions: Using Panel Data to Examine the Causal Direction

Abstract

In line with theoretical approaches, such as the influence of presumed influence approach, many studies have shown that the stronger individuals perceive the media’s influence to be on others, the more the individuals demand restrictions on the media and its influence. However, these studies provided information only about the correlation between the two constructs and did not test the direction of their causal relationship. To close this research gap, a two-wave panel study among German citizens was conducted. The results show that, rather than being the other way around, it is the presumed strength of online media’s political influence on others that affects demands for restrictions. Moreover, the findings indicate that the presumed political influence of online media on others also affects the presumed reach of online media.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the German Research Association (“Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft”; grant number 1381, research group “Political Communication in the Online World,” Subproject 3).

Notes

¹ Websites of political parties may differ from Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, weblogs, or online news sites, as party websites are, for example, more partial. As a result, alternative scales of presumed political influence and presumed reach were created; each of them included only the items measuring (a) the presumed political influence or (b) the presumed reach of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, weblogs, and online news sites. However, these changes did not lead to an improvement of Cronbach’s alpha (the values were even slightly lower). The number of valid cases also remained nearly the same. Moreover, the correlational analyses, as well as the path analysis including the modified scales, did not lead to substantially different results.

² This is probably due to the mode of the survey. The survey was conducted by telephone. Compared to online surveys, the present sample included many older individuals, individuals without Internet access, or individuals who are unfamiliar with social media channels. It seems plausible that individuals who have never used online channels such as Facebook, Twitter, or YouTube, or do not even know about these channels, feel unable to answer questions regarding the reach and political influence of these channels. Due to the reduced sample size, it was tested with the help of a power analysis whether analyses with this data set have sufficient statistical power to detect statistical effects. The power analysis was conducted with the program G*Power (Faul, Erdfelder, Buchner, & Lang, 2009). Based on meta-analytical findings, an effect size from .12 (Feng & Guo, 2012) to .13 (Xu & Gonzenbach, 2008) of the presumed media influence on demands for influence restrictions is expectable. The power analysis indicated that a total sample size of 102 is necessary to find statistical effects, if an effect size of .13, a power level of .95, and a probability level of .05 are assumed. Thus, the sample size of the presented data set is acceptable.

³ In addition, regression analyses were conducted, one each for t₁ and t₂. Demands for influence restrictions were used as a dependent variable. Presumed influence of online media on others served as an independent variable. Moreover, the aforementioned control variables were taken into account. The results also support H1a and H1b: The presumed influence of online media on others proved to be a significant predictor. The stronger the respondents perceived the influence of online media on others to be, the more they demanded influence restrictions (t₁: β = .21, p < .001, n = 294; t₂: β = .17, p < .01, n = 322).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the German Research Association (“Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft”; grant number 1381, research group “Political Communication in the Online World,” Subproject 3).

Notes on contributors

Marco Dohle

Marco Dohle (Ph.D., University of Duesseldorf, 2010) is a research associate in the Department of Communication and Media Studies at University of Duesseldorf His research interests include political communication, presumed media influences and consequences, and the selection and effects of media entertainment.

Uli Bernhard

Uli Bernhard (Ph.D., Free University Berlin, 2011) is a professor in the Department of Information and Communication at the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Hannover. His research interests include political communication, presumed media influences and consequences, and content analyses of radio programs.

Ole Kelm

Ole Kelm (M.A., University of Duesseldorf, 2016) is a doctoral student and research associate in the Department of Communication and Media Studies at University of Duesseldorf. His research interests include political communication, presumed media influences and consequences, and political consumerism.