Negative Advertising Effects on Presidential Support Ratings During the 2012 Election: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Serial Dependency Study

Abstract

In a literature where different research approaches generate inconsistent effects, we examine negative TV advertising effects on public support ratings of presidential candidates over time. Weekly national advertising and poll data from 2011 and 2012 were analyzed via (a) pooled time series analysis with growth curve modeling and (b) individual time serial dependency analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average. Study results support a social influence model derived from attribution theory, wherein negative TV ads did, in fact, influence poll results or public support ratings. In particular, spending on negative advertising increased the support for the sponsor of such ads. We also uncover a reciprocal effect of negative advertising between the competing candidates over time, such that spending on negative advertising attacking Mitt Romney predicted spending on advertising attacking Barack Obama in about 4 weeks at Lag 3 and Lag 4. Findings establishing the efficacy of negative advertising are discussed in the context of game theory.

Notes

¹ Vinjamuri (2012) recounted the classic scenarios for which the prisoner’s dilemma was so named: “The classic prisoner’s dilemma goes like this: two suspects are taken to interrogation rooms to be interviewed separately about a crime they’ve committed together. Each knows that if both refuse to talk, they are unlikely—but not guaranteed—to go free. Each suspect also knows that if he talks and the other suspect does not he will get guaranteed immunity from prosecution. On the other hand, if the suspect does not talk but his accomplice does, the suspect is certain to be found guilty while his accomplice goes free. If both men talk, both will go to jail, albeit for less time than if just one man talked. In the Prisoner’s Dilemma, each suspect inevitably ends up talking to avoid the worst possibility—that he will take the long prison term while his accomplice goes free. However, the net outcome is the second-worst outcome—because both men talk, both go to jail” (p. 1).

² This purchase was supported by the National Cancer Institute grant R21 CA141293-01.

³ Reid, Carey, Merrill, and Carey (2015) argued for the inclusion of marginally significant results in their parallel work addressing the influence of information campaigns.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Tao (Jennifer) Ma

Tao (Jennifer) Ma (Ph.D., University of Connecticut, 2016) is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mass Communication at Winona State University. Her research interests include the areas of marketing communication, health communication, new media technology, and persuasion process. She had done grant-supported research by applying interdisciplinary perspectives to investigate the influences of strategic communication on social changes at the individual, institutional, and societal level.

David Atkin

David Atkin (Ph.D., Michigan State University, 1988) is a Professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Connecticut. His research interests include communication policy as well as uses and socio-political effects of social media and other emerging digital modalities. He has done grant-supported work on the adoption, use and regulation of new media.

Leslie B. Snyder

Leslie B. Snyder (Ph.D., Stanford University, 1986) is a Professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Connecticut. Her research interests include the intended and unintended consequences of mediated communication and strategies to increase the effectiveness of communication, including news, advertising, public health messages, and communication campaigns. She has received funding from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health, and the Dept. of Interior, and has been on several National Academy of Sciences Committees.

Arthur Van Lear

Arthur Van Lear (Ph.D., University of Utah, 1985) is an Associate Professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Connecticut. His research interests include modeling of interactive and temporal communication processes. communication in interpersonal relationships, relationship formation and evolution, and marital and family communication, as well as communication and relationships as part of the alcoholism recovery process.