Uncertainty Beyond Probabilities of BSE: Appraisals Predicting Worry and Coping Strategies in the Canadian Public

Abstract

The impact of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is not limited to the infection with the BSE agent but also affects psychosocial responses, such as worry and loss of confidence in public authorities. It was shown in past crises that these reactions depended upon the way the event was perceived by the public. Understanding the nature of the perceptions of BSE is therefore of great importance for risk management in all phases of the risk, including the period before the onset of a crisis, when BSE is still only a pending threat to human health. This study analyzed data from a representative national survey of Canadians (n = 1,517) on the perceived risk of prion diseases. Factor analysis revealed emerging dimensions of BSE appraisals and regression analysis identified variables that predicted worry and coping strategies. Results yielded three significant factors, each relating differently to reactions to BSE: (1) Perceived impact, which combined perceived risk for health and likelihood of occurrence of BSE crises, was the main predictor of worry about eating tainted beef; (2) perceived mastery, consisting of personal knowledge and control, predicted taking action to avoid the disease; and (3) perceived intricacy, composed of perceived complexity and uncertainty, uniquely predicted trying to ignore BSE-related risks. Further regression analysis and analysis of variance exposed a moderating role of perceived intricacy on the relationship between perceived impact of BSE crises and worry. The implications of these findings for risk communication and management are described.

Acknowledgments

This project was funded by PrioNet Canada, NCE, and leveraged with in-kind contributions by the Chemical, Biological, Radiological & Nuclear (CBRN) Research and Technology Initiative (CRTI) Project number CRTI02-0080RD, the McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, as well as from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.