Using Time Series Analysis to Predict U.S. Service Exports

Abstract

The economy of the United States became predominately service oriented over 50 years ago. Research regarding the significance of the growth of the service sector in the U.S. economy remains scant. Using time series analysis, this article investigates the significance of growth in total U.S. service exports for the 1960–2011 timeframe and provides an econometric estimate of expected growth in U.S. service export volume for 2012 through 2014. Knowing the significance, growth rate, and expected volume of U.S. service exports is important for marketers and policy makers alike. The findings indicate that the growth trend of the U.S. service exports is positive, significant, and expected to continue.

KEYWORDS:

• U.S. service exports
• service exporting
• time series analysis
• predictive modeling in marketing

Notes

*p < .00.

Note. Correlation = (Intercept) year −0.97; residual standard error = 1,194.113; df = 52 total, 50 residual.