Reducing conflict in development and allocation of transboundary rivers

Abstract

This article explores opportunities for water scarcity to motivate neighboring nations in transboundary basins to cooperate in the development and allocation of water. Climate change raises the importance of discovering foundations for this cooperation. We examine the development of infrastructure and allocation of water in the controversial Amu Darya Basin. An analysis is presented that characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns in the basin. Using information on the basin’s energy potential, water supplies, land area, crop water requirements, and crop economics, we analyze total basin-wide economic welfare over a 20 year period. Results show that the development and operation of the planned Rogun Dam has the potential to secure agricultural benefits downstream for Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, while supplying some winter power upstream in Tajikistan in normal water conditions. Results show that the ongoing conflict in the Amu Darya Basin over water infrastructure and allocation has the potential to be resolved in a way to secure economic gains for all four nations. However, patient and difficult political negotiations will be required to achieve the gains indicated.

Данная работа исследует возможности мотивации соседних стран для взаимодействия в развитии и распределении воды по причине дефицита водных ресурсов в трансграничных бассейнах. Изменение климата повышает важность нахождения основ для такого рода кооперации. Мы исследовали развитие инфраструктуры распределения воды в противоречивом бассейне реки Амударья. Рассмотренный анализ характеризует политически ограниченное и экономически оптимизированное распределение воды в бассейне. Используя данные по энергопотенциалу, имеющимся водным и земельным ресурсам, потребностям сельскохозяйственных культур в воде и экономике сельскохозяйственных культур, мы провели анализ совокупного экономического благосостояния в бассейне реки на 20-летний период. Результаты показывают, что функционирование Рогунского водохранилища имеет потенциал для обеспечения сельскохозяйственных выгод для стран низовья: Афганистана, Узбекистана и Туркменистана, в то же время обеспечивая некоторое количество зимней энергии для расположенного выше по течению Таджикистана в годы с нормальной водообеспеченностью. Результаты показывают, что текущий конфликт в бассейне реки Амударья за водную инфраструктуру и распределение имеет потенциал разрешиться путем экономического выигрыша для всех четырех стран. Однако, требуется терпение и сложные политические переговоры чтобы достичь указанных выигрышей.

Keywords:

• water scarcity
• conflict resolution
• basin management
• Amu Darya
• Central Asia

Notes

1. The four tributaries are the Kunduz, Kafirnigan, Surkhandarya, and Sherabad.

2. An unpublished Draft National Water Resources and Irrigation Development Program Plan (February 2012) written by the Afghan government presents a vision to improve agricultural production, raise access to basic services like potable drinking water, and improve sanitation services for livelihoods and economic growth. There are sufficient water resources in the country to allow for further improvement of the water service reliability. However, this will require the establishment of reservoirs for storing water during periods of high runoff from the upper catchments, and releasing it gradually during periods of low supply. It will also require a water-rights system to support sustained operation of the reservoirs. Undertaking such projects is costly and requires considerable preparation, not only because of technical challenges, but also for the need to assess the project against wider river basin development plans. An additional complication occurs where projects change the flow regime of a river crossing into a neighboring country. Improvement of quality and expansion of irrigation services therefore requires considerable preparation and a high level of government capacity that is not currently present.

3. Effective conflict resolution methods vary widely by culture. In western cultures, successful conflict resolution often can be achieved by promoting direct discussion and debate among parties about the conflict itself. An example is drafting agreements that meet all parties’ needs. In western cultures, negotiators often openly and directly discuss ways to find a win–win solution for everyone involved. In many nonWestern cultures, such as seen in the Amu Darya Basin, it is still important to find win–win solutions; however, getting there can require different approaches. In these cultures, communication among the negotiators that directly raise the issues at stake can be viewed as rude because they invade sensitivities, exacerbating the conflict and delaying resolution. In those cultures, the search for common denominators may see greater success by bringing in religious or other community leaders, or by communicating sensitive truths indirectly through a third party. One example of a successful conflict resolution model for a transboundary river is the Indus Treaty of 1960. Under it, India and Pakistan agreed to divide the six most important headwaters supplying the Indus Basin.