Determinants of Turkish Exports to European Union Countries: A Sectoral Panel Data Analysis

ABSTRACT

In this study, the structure of Turkish exports to ten EU countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the United Kingdom) and the European Union total are examined and compared. For each country, the cross-sectional dimension is manufacturing industry sectors, and the time dimension is between 2003Q1 and 2012Q2. The estimation methodology is augmented mean group. In the regressions, the statistically significant variables affecting Turkey’s exports to various EU countries are Turkey’s industrial production index and sectoral export unit price index, partner country’s sectoral imports from the World, and partner country’s import prices. Seasonal dummies are added to account for seasonalities in the data, and a crises dummy is added to see the effects of recent crises. This study enables us to analyse Turkey’s exports to EU countries across time, sector, and country dimensions and make policy suggestions.

KEY WORDS:

• augmented mean group
• European Union
• exports
• panel
• Turkey

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Prof. Dr. Bülent Güloğlu for his valuable contributions. The ideas presented in the article are those of the authors and do not bind the Ministry of Economy.

Notes

1. IMF estimates

2. OECD Definiton of SITC: SITC is the Standard International Trade Classification, which is a statistical classification of the commodities entering external trade. It is designed to provide the commodity aggregates requited for purposes of economic analysis and to facilitate the international comparison of trade-by-commodity data.

3. The working paper version of this article can be obtained from the authors.

4. Results of the CADF tests can be seen in the working paper version of this article, which can be obtained from the authors.

5. Results of the ERS and Ng-Perron tests can be seen in the working paper version of this article, which can be obtained from the authors.

6. Detailed results for each country can be obtained on request from the authors.