The Evolution of the Belt and Road Trade Network and Its Determinant Factors

ABSTRACT

This study reveals the evolution of the Belt and Road trade network, and discusses the determinant factors of trade relationships by employing network analysis methods. Using 65 countries’ trade flow data in 2012, 2014, and 2016, the network indices show that the Belt and Road initiative has improved trade network’s connectivity significantly. The results of blockmodels show that the trade network can be partitioned into four blocks, including “Dominators,” “Brokers,” “Generators,” and “Receivers.” Furthermore, the spatial proximity, cultural differences, trade agreements, economic distance, and trade facilitations have significant impacts on the formation of trade network according to the QAP model.

KEY WORDS:

• network analysis
• QAP model
• the Belt and Road initiative
• trade network

Notes

1. Thanks to the reviewers for their opinions, we also identified the four blocks of the B&R trade network in 2012 and 2014. We found that the countries in four blocks are relatively stable. To avoid prolonged space exploring the similar results and make the article concise, we didn’t list the results of the B&R trade network in 2012 and 2014.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Social Science Foundation of China under Grant [11&ZD159, 17AJL011]; National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants [11&ZD15941430637, 41329001]; and Social Science Foundation for Young Scientists of Guangdong Province [GD17YYJ05].