Oil Prices and Stock Markets during the 2014–16 Oil Price Slump: Asymmetries and Speed of Adjustment in GCC and Oil-Importing Countries

ABSTRACT

We assess the effect of the oil price slump of 2014–2016 on the stock markets of the GCC countries and the four largest oil importers: China, Japan, India, and South Korea. We find that compared to the pre-slump period negative oil price changes had larger effects on equity prices in oil exporting countries, whereas positive oil price innovations had larger effects on oil importers. We also observed intertemporal symmetry switching in GCC countries and an increase in the speed of adjustment of equity prices during the slump for both oil importers and exporters from which we infer a time varying relationship between oil and equity prices.

KEY WORDS:

• industry effects
• nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL)
• oil price shocks
• stock markets

Supplementary material

Supplementary data can be accessed here

Notes

1. See Bernanke (2016).

2. For a comprehensive survey see Degiannakis, Filis, and Arora (2017).

3. See Herrera, Lagalo, and Wada (2015) and the references cited therein.

4. Other than oil prices, many common factors such as governance, infrastructure availability and macroeconomic environment can affect both portfolio investment and FDI decisions and hence the location choices of MNEs’ FDI could also be spatially affected (Mina 2007; Siddiqui and Iqbal 2018).

5. Our results for Japan are also corroborated by Abhyankar, Xu, and Wang (2013).