Can China Realize the Grid Parity Target of Centralized Photovoltaic Power by 2020?

ABSTRACT

China has set an ambitious target of achieving the grid parity of solar power by 2020 in the 13th Five-Year Plan. This paper estimates the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) of centralized photovoltaic power across regions in China with the actual situation in 2016 and simulation scenarios for 2020. Results demonstrate that the LCOEs of centralized photovoltaic power will decrease considerably during the period of 13th Five-Year. Few of them are competitive with generation side electric prices in 2016 basic scenario and 2020 pessimistic situation. Sensitivity analysis reveals that utilization hour, unit investment cost, and financing cost are key driving factors.

KEY WORDS:

• centralized photovoltaic power
• generation side grid parity
• levelized cost of electricity

Notes

1. Several provinces stretch across two different SEZs. The Roman numeral following the name of the province indicates the area of this province in the corresponding SEZ.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Major Program of the National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science [Grant No. 15ZDB165];