The Effects of Different Types of Oil Price Shocks on Industrial PPI: Evidence from 36 Sub-industries in China

ABSTRACT

Based on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, we investigate the impacts of different types of oil price shocks on industrial producer price index (PPI) in China for the period from 1996:10 to 2017:6. The results show that an increase in oil prices caused by oil supply shocks has negative impacts on China’s industrial PPI, while industrial PPI and an increase in oil prices caused by aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks move in the same direction. There are significant inter-industry differences in the effect of oil price shocks on industrial PPI. Energy intensity is an important factor affecting the inter-industry differences in oil supply and oil-specific demand shocks, while the inter-industry differences in aggregate demand shocks are mainly affected by export dependence. A variance decomposition analysis reveals that the increase in oil prices driven by aggregate demand shocks has the most important influence on the PPIs in most sub-industries.

KEYWORDS:

• Oil price shocks
• industrial PPI
• industry differences
• SVAR model

JEL:

• E31
• E37
• Q43

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed on the publisher’s website

Notes

1. The data period for the heavy industry and light industry indices is from October 1996 to March 2016; the data period for C25 and C41 is from January 1999 to June 2017; the data period for B10, C13, C18, C23, C26, C30, C34, C35 and D45 is from April 2002 to June 2017; and the data period for C42 is from January 2003 to June 2017.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Numbers 71874210, 71633006, 71874207 and 71573282].