The Challenges to Coupling Dynamic Geospatial Models

ABSTRACT

Many applications of modeling spatial dynamic systems focus on a single system and a single process, ignoring the geographic and systemic context of the processes being modeled. A solution to this problem is the coupled modeling of spatial dynamic systems. Coupled modeling is challenging for technical reasons, as well as conceptual reasons. This paper explores the benefits and challenges to coupling or linking spatial dynamic models, from loose coupling, where information transfer between models is done by hand, to tight coupling, where two (or more) models are merged as one. To illustrate the challenges, a coupled model of Urbanization and Wildfire Risk is presented. This model, called Vesta, was applied to the Santa Barbara, California region (using real geospatial data), where Urbanization and Wildfires occur and recur, respectively. The preliminary results of the model coupling illustrate that coupled modeling can lead to insight into the consequences of processes acting on their own.

KEYWORDS:

• Modeling
• Dynamic Geospatial Models
• Wildfires
• Urbanization
• Land Use

This work was performed under the auspices of the U. S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7450-Eng-48, UCRL-JRNL-222380. Additional support for this work was provided by the University of California, Berkeley with support from the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program.

This article is not subject to U.S. copyright law.