A Statistical Model for Wind Power on the Basis of Ramp Analysis

Abstract

Due to stochastic nature of wind distribution, wind power output comes with unscheduled changes called ramp events. In this paper, a semi-analytical approach is considered to analyze the distribution of ramp events. A simple empirical equation is derived based on the probability of wind ramp events considering the stochastic nature of wind power distribution for the Indian state of Karnataka. The proposed functional relationship shows a satisfactory approximation of the actual distribution of ramp events and helps to estimate the statistical behaviour of wind output in terms of frequency of ramp events for pre-defined threshold power outputs.

Keywords:

• Ramp events
• wind power-bin
• statistical behaviour
• stochastic
• probability

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Mr. Mohd. Saquib for sharing some of the wind power data for Karnataka, India and Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj, Executive Director, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), Bangalore, India for his continuous support.