The influence of alternative data smoothing prediction techniques on the performance of a two-stage short-term urban travel time prediction framework

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impact of alternative data smoothing and traffic prediction methods on the accuracy of the performance of a two-stage short-term urban travel time prediction framework. Using this framework, we test the influence of the combination of two different data smoothing and four different prediction methods using travel time data from two substantially different urban traffic environments and under both normal and abnormal conditions. This constitutes the most comprehensive empirical evaluation of the joint influence of smoothing and predictor choice to date. The results indicate that the use of data smoothing improves prediction accuracy regardless of the prediction method used and that this is true in different traffic environments and during both normal and abnormal (incident) conditions. Moreover, the use of data smoothing in general has a much greater influence on prediction performance than the choice of specific prediction method, and this is independent of the specific smoothing method used. In normal traffic conditions, the different prediction methods produce broadly similar results but under abnormal conditions, lazy learning methods emerge as superior.

KEYWORDS:

• data smoothing
• intelligent transportation systems (ITS)
• machine learning method
• short-term traffic prediction

Funding

The authors would like to acknowledge the support from Transport for London (TfL) and Kent County Council (KCC) for providing the data used in this paper and Cisco for providing the financial support for this work.