Performance Evaluation of 14 Neural Network Architectures Used for Predicting Heat Transfer Characteristics of Engine Oils

Abstract

This paper reports the results of a comprehensive study that aimed at identifying best neural network architecture and parameters to predict subcooled boiling characteristics of engine oils. A total of 57 different neural networks (NNs) that were derived from 14 different NN architectures were evaluated for four different prediction cases. The NNs were trained on experimental datasets performed on five engine oils of different chemical compositions. The performance of each NN was evaluated using a rigorous statistical analysis as well as careful examination of smoothness of predicted boiling curves. One NN, out of the 57 evaluated, correctly predicted the boiling curves for all cases considered either for individual oils or for all oils taken together. It was found that the pattern selection and weight update techniques strongly affect the performance of the NNs. It was also revealed that the use of descriptive statistical analysis such as R², mean error, standard deviation, and T and slope tests, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for evaluating NN performance. The performance criteria should also include inspection of the smoothness of the predicted curves either visually or by plotting the slopes of these curves.

Keywords:

• Neural networks
• Back propagation
• General regression
• Polynomial networks
• Statistical analysis
• heat transfer
• Engine oils
• Boiling

Acknowledgments

This research project was supported by the Public Authority of Applied Education and Training, Kuwait (Project no. TS-09-07).