Assessing the Risk of Nonsexual and Sexual Victimization Using Incident-Based Police Reports

Abstract

Current research has affirmed that black women are most at risk for rape, assault, and intimate partner violence in the United States. These findings are often based on statistics from surveys like the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The NCVS collects data from a stratified sample of households in the United States from which one can establish victimization risk and rates at the national level. We know very little about a person's risk of violent crime victimization from police records at the local and state level because until recently the data were not available. This study, therefore, adds to current victimization research by utilizing state-level police data to examine violent crime victimization patterns. Specifically, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and West Virginia Incident-Based Reporting System (WVIBRS), we construct a model to examine the risk of nonsexual and sexual victimization over a lifetime by sex and race. Our findings indicate that black females in West Virginia have the highest probability of experiencing a nonsexual and sexual victimization over their lifetime. They also have the highest risk of multiple victimizations for these crimes.

Keywords:

• NIBRS
• victimization
• sexual victimization
• probability models

Notes

Throughout this paper we refer to the risk of victimization. Because we are using police reports, our calculations are actually the risk of a violent victimization that gets reported to and recorded by the police. To say this each time we mention risk would be awkward and distracting. Therefore, when we write something like “the risk of victimization” we mean “the risk of victimization that will eventually get recorded by police and entered into a police database.”

1. It also provides arrest information on eleven “less serious” offenses.

2. Based on 2008 Census estimates.

3. The other 178 reported nonsexual and sexual victimizations were committed against persons classified as a racial “other.” This includes persons who indicated their ethnicity as Hispanic.

4. According to Crime in the United States, 2009 the state of West Virginia had full NIBRS reporting from law enforcement agencies covering 91% of the population. The majority of the missing agencies were small towns outside of metropolitan areas (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2010).

5. Murder is excluded because the lifetime model considers repeat victimization, which is inapplicable to this crime. Robbery is excluded because under WVIBRS counting rules the number of offenses does not equal the number of victims (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2000).

6. “Other” race males and females are excluded from our analysis because according to official police reports their risk of violent crime victimization is relatively very low.

7. A detailed examination of the average person concept is also included in the discussion section.

8. For the purpose of the NIBRS, aggravated assault is defined as “an unlawful attack by one person upon another wherein the offender uses a weapon or displays it in a threatening manner, or the victim suffers obvious severe or aggravated bodily injury involving apparent broken bones, loss of teeth, possible internal injuries, severe laceration, or loss of consciousness.” Simple assault is defined as “an unlawful physical attack by one person upon another where neither the offender displays a weapon, nor the victim suffers obvious severe or aggravated bodily injury involving apparent broken bones, loss of teeth, possible internal injury, severe laceration, or loss of consciousness” (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2000).