The Modeling of Turkey's Electrical Energy Consumption and Production Policy Relating to the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

This article addresses the problem of determining optimum distribution of future electrical energy supplies in Turkey under the impact of the Kyoto Protocol, which was ratified early in 2009. Improvement and proper choice of energy sources is a prerequisite to achieving lower carbon emission. Turkey's prime energy sources and carbon emission is given comparatively with France and Germany. It is shown that Turkey's electrical energy generation is largely due to thermal power plants, which require carbon capture and storage units to lower CO₂ emissions in order to meet the Kyoto criteria. An electrical energy consumption model for the future is forecasted using exponential smoothing. Predicated on this model and applying penalty to large carbon emission sources, an optimal allocation of energy sources is determined for minimum operating costs. The results obtained demonstrated that the future electrical energy requirement can be compensated with the help of nuclear power plants as well as carbon capture and storage units to be built for thermal power plants.

Keywords:

• carbon capture and storage cost
• Kyoto Protocol
• Turkey's electrical energy policy

Notes

¹ http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

^a Geothermal, solar, wind, and wood and waste (biomass and renewable).

Source: EIA, 2008.

^a Geothermal, solar, wind, and wood and waste (biomass and renewable).

Source: TEIAS, 2007.

² http://www.teias.gov.tr