Sensitivity of Predicted Oil Production to the Sigmoid Function

Abstract

Mathematical parameters relating to the sensitivity of oil production are modeled by the standard sigmoid function. An analysis of the function is fitted to present and past production data for different ultimately recoverable reserve (URR) assumptions. The sigmoid exponent (S) and peak production year (P) are correlated to past production data in order to model near-term (10–15 year) production. Peak production rates are determined based upon the derivative of the fitted sigmoid function.

Keywords:

• logistic analysis
• oil production
• peak oil
• sigmoid function

Notes

^a All liquids;

^b manual estimate from ASPO data;

^c production through 2005;

^d cumulative production from ASPO prior to 1970;

^e linear average, MBd.