Univariate Modelling of Energy Consumption in Turkish Agriculture

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to estimate future energy consumption in Turkish agriculture. To meet this objective, univariate time-series analysis was used. Annual time series data for diesel consumption in the Turkish agricultural sector for 1970–2006 are used in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA model was determined to be (8,1,13). According to the model's results, diesel consumption is predicted to be over 4 million tonnes in 2020. The average growth rate of diesel consumption is 2.17% per year for the coming years in the agricultural sector.

Keywords:

• ARIMA
• Box Jenkins method
• econometric modelling
• forecasting
• fuel consumption

Notes

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.