Simulation of the Monthly Hydroelectricity Generation in China Based on a Logistic Model

Abstract

Employing a logistic growth carve model, the monthly hydroelectricity generation in China during 1999–2009 is simulated. Except Parameter b (October), all parameters are linear 2-parameter regression between the actual and simulated hydroelectricity pass t-test at the significance level of 0.005. All the F-test values of linear 2-parameter regression pass the F-test at the significance level of 0.01. The maximum growth rate of monthly hydroelectricity generation and the points of 90% potential install capacity can be forecasted. The maximum growth rate of monthly hydroelectricity will occur in the period of 2010–2015. In this period, the monthly hydroelectricity will increase quickly. Then, its growth rate will decline to 0 during 2022–2034. Later in 2034, all monthly hydroelectricity generation comes to their steady line, supplying 1,266.081 billion Kw·h per year.

Keywords:

• logistic model
• monthly hydroelectricity
• steady point
• turning point

Notes

**Under the given condition that degree of freedom is 9, the critical values of the t-test are 3.69 for the fiducially probability less than 99.5%.

***Under the given condition the degrees of freedom are 1 and 9, the critical value of the F-test is 10.56 where the fiducially probability is blow 99%.