Does the SARB respond to oil price movements? Historical evidence from the frequency domain

ABSTRACT

Causality testing procedures in the frequency domain and the time domain are employed to analyses the relationship between oil prices and interest rate in South Africa, covering the time period January 1936–November 2013 . Results show that the time domain Granger causality test fails to reject the null hypothesis for the full sample, and the test rejects the null hypothesis for the 3rd subsample (December 1998–November 2013), following structural break tests. Results for the frequency domain causality test show that for both of these samples the null hypothesis is rejected at certain frequencies: at higher frequencies for the full sample and at lower frequencies for the 3rd sample. With the majority of the 3rd subsample period coinciding with the inflation targeting regime, results highlight that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) seems to have systematically responded to oil price shocks.

KEYWORDS:

• Causality test
• frequency domain
• interest rate
• oil prices
• South Africa

Notes

¹ The results are available from authors upon request.