Electricity consumption forecasting for Turkey with nonhomogeneous discrete grey model

ABSTRACT

The accuracy of forecasting is an essential issue for decision makers in terms of energy planning. During the recent years, several techniques have been used for electricity consumption forecasting in order to accurately predict the future demand. Although there are several forecasting techniques, selection of the most appropriate one is of paramount importance. In this study, three different grey forecasting models are built and used for modeling and predicting yearly net electricity consumption in Turkey. Additionally, these three models are compared to find the best model by using performance criteria. The best approach, Nonhomogeneous Discrete Grey Model (NDGM), is employed to forecast electricity consumption from 2014 to 2030. In addition, a comparison is made with recent studies proving the grey model (GM) proposed by this study delivers better forecasting performance.

Keywords:

• Discrete grey model
• electricity consumption forecasting
• energy demand of Turkey
• grey prediction
• grey theory