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ABSTRACT
Coal-based energy production (CBEP) for the last three decades in Turkey was examined using statistical techniques. Multiple regression analysis was performed on the data and some predictions were shown to determine the future trends. The correlation coefficient (R2) of CBEP against natural gas (NG) was 0.95. Hydroelectric and renewable energy (RE) had considerable correlation coefficients with CBEP (0.81 and 0.74), respectively. The selected models can be used in the forecasting of energy trends for CBEP. Almost 24% of the total settled power was CBEP in 2011. It will reach 196 TWh in 2030. The inevitable strategy pursued in this direction has been depending on CBEP using low-quality lignite reserves (below 3,000 kcal/kg) and hydroelectric dams. The share of imported NG will be able to be reduced from 43% to 23% near about 2030. It is expected that there will be an increase in the RE by considering the statistical results.