Forecasting Nigeria’s energy use by 2030, an econometric approach

ABSTRACT

The study examines the causal nexus between energy use, environmental pollution, GDP per capita, and urbanization in order to forecast Nigeria’s energy use by 2030. Employing a time-series data spanning from 1971 to 2012, a linear regression analysis is used to examine the causal relationship among the study variables and subsequently forecasted Nigeria’s energy use with the ARIMA and ETS models. Evidence from the study shows that a 1% increase in energy use increases carbon dioxide emissions by 3%, while a 1% increase in economic growth increases carbon dioxide emissions by 0.18%. Evidence from both the ARIMA and ETS models shows an increase of energy use from 795 kg per oil equivalent per capita in 2012 to 915 kg per oil equivalent per capita in 2030.

KEYWORDS:

• Carbon dioxide emissions
• econometrics
• energy demand
• forecasting
• Nigeria