Estimating Ghana’s electricity consumption by 2030: An ARIMA forecast

ABSTRACT

In this study, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast Ghana’s Electricity Consumption by the year 2030. Using a time series spanning from 1980 to 2013, evidence from the ARIMA forecast shows that Ghana’s electricity consumption will grow from 8.52 billion kWh in 2012 to 9.56 billion kWh in 2030 in the predicted scenario. The Government of Ghana is encouraged to expand the energy mix by incorporating renewable energy technologies, improve the energy demand-side management policies, planning, and investment decisions on energy infrastructure concerning diverse power generation options to meet the projected electricity demand by 2030.

KEYWORDS:

• ARIMA
• electricity consumption
• energy demand-side management
• forecasting
• Ghana