Assessing drivers of energy consumption and progress toward energy targets in Italy

ABSTRACT

The objectives of this study are to provide new insights on (i) the drivers of changes in final energy consumption in Italy over the period from 1995 to 2015 by employing a multi-sectoral decomposition analysis approach – Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI-I); and (ii) the progress of Italy toward the indicative energy efficiency and mandatory energy-saving targets set for 2020. The decomposition results show that from 1995 to 2015, an increase in final energy consumption caused by activity effects has been almost totally offset by structural changes. Energy intensity improvements occurred during the period from 2006 to 2015 when most of the energy efficiency policies in Italy were implemented. However, unlike the ex ante estimates of energy savings reported by the Italian government, the LMDI-I analysis shows that Italy is not on track to achieve the 2020 energy efficiency and energy-saving targets. Challenges and opportunities in policymaking are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Energy efficiency
• energy saving
• energy consumption
• index decomposition analysis
• LMDI
• Italy

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions to improve the quality of the paper.

Declaration of interest statement

The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed on the publisher’s website.

Notes

¹ Motorcycles and small appliances are excluded from the analysis due to a lack of data about the passenger kilometer for motorcycles and the stock of small appliances.

² The decomposition is perfect and there is no residual at the aggregate (single-step procedure) and subcategory (step-by-step procedure) levels.:

³ The EU is currently discussing a range of measures to ensure a fair competition between Eastern and Western European countries, and to help to improve drivers’ employment conditions. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/614596/EPRS_BRI(2017)614596_EN.pdf.

⁴ http://www.contitruck.it/2018/02/21/2006-2015-il-trasporto-merci-su-strada-in-italia-e-calato-del-381-2/.

⁵ Compared to the study of Economidou (2017) reporting savings of 9.5 Mtoe over the period 2005–2015, in this study, the results indicate that (from 2005 to 2015) energy intensity reduced energy consumption by 6.7 Mtoe (Appendix, Table 6).

⁶ Energy savings resulting from individual actions newly implemented since 31 December 2008 that continue to have an impact in 2020 and that can be measured and verified.

Additional information

Funding

This work has been supported by the Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation (Jenny ja Antti Wihurin rahasto) under project grant Trotta/00180402 and the H2020 European Research Council (ERC) under project grant [Gram-Hanssen/786643].