Crude oil price determinants and multi-sectoral effects: A review

ABSTRACT

In this article, we provide a structured review of crude oil price dynamics. Specifically, we summarize evidence on important factors determining oil prices, cover the impact of oil market shocks on the macro economy and the stock market, discuss how the financialization of crude oil markets affects oil market functionality and efficiency, and we then outline approaches for forecasting crude oil prices and volatility. By comparing the results of the most influential early contributions and recent studies, we can identify important developments and research gaps in each field. Thus, our review provides academics and practitioners newly engaging in crude oil research with an overview of what scientists know about crude oil dynamics and highlights which topics are particularly promising for future research.

KEYWORDS:

• Crude oil
• Macro economy
• Stock market
• Financialization
• Forecasting

Notes

¹ U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day) (eia.gov)

² dpr-full.pdf (eia.gov)

³ OPEC: 170th (Extraordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/Declaration%20of%20Cooperation.pdf

⁴ Saudi Vision 2030

⁵ https://vision2030.gov.sa/en

⁶ IMO 2020 – cutting sulfur oxide emissions

⁷ crude.pdf (eia.gov)