http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4543-4449
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Abstract
Transportation subsector has gained a relevant role being now the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector, which is currently the largest sector contributor in Brazil. To analyze future scenarios and assist climate change mitigation policies, a bottom-up approach of a fleet-based tank-to-wheel (TTW) analysis on GHG emissions was conducted for light vehicles, in 2010-2040 timeframe. As the nationally determined contribution (NDC) does not define transportation targets specifically, we propose some benchmarks to serve as reference targets. Different intensity of three carbon mitigation strategies are considered: (i) fuel-efficiency improvements (such as those imposed by EU commission); (ii) biofuel increase (in 5 to 15% from the average use); and (iii) electric vehicles (EVs) diffusion (battery electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles). The results indicate an overall accomplishment in meeting those benchmarks, but some were only achieved by the assumption that policies aiming to perform such scenarios would be introduced. Biofuel increase strategy, followed by fuel-efficiency increase, provided the most relevant GHG mitigation potential. EVs diffusion strategy needs additional incentives to achieve significant impact contribution, as its market share is only slowly increasing. Further emphasis is made to the importance of strengthening and integrating different policies and strategies along with some discussion and comparison with results from other countries.