Dynamic modeling of air traffic emissions with a two variable system

Abstract

Greenhouse gases emissions modify the radiative balance of the Earth, causing changes in its climate. Climate Change is considered one of the greatest threats to economic and social stability. Aviation is responsible for around a 2.5% of greenhouse gases emissions. This contribution is steadily increasing, thus the interest of assessing the impacts that different policies might have on it. The simple feedback model proposed here was intended as a tool in order to investigate the stabilization issue. The model was based on the relationship between the number of air traffic passengers and the associated CO₂ emissions. It incorporated a representation of the feedback of the technological innovation on the emissions rate and of those of the socioeconomic response to the climatic impact on the passengers number. The model parameters were estimated using data from a variety of robust air traffic sources. However, it was found that neither of the feedback terms succeeded at stabilizing the emissions, although they might slow down their growth. In addition, there is also a nonlinear version of the model that includes a representation of the passengers perception of insecurity, similar to the one experienced in the current pandemic. This model favors the stability of both, the number of passengers and CO₂ emissions, as it would also be able to control unprecedented situations.

Keywords:

• Air traffic emissions
• emissions stabilization
• environmental policies
• feedbacks
• two variable model

Acknowledgements

J.M. Salazar is thanked for some remarks. The three anonymous reviewers of this paper are acknowledged for their comments. The University of Alcala is also acknowledged for the Matlab software license provided. The Vensim simulation software and the Dfield and Pplane (free) software were also used.