Searching for a Needle in a Needle Stack: Combining Criminal Careers and Journey‐to‐Crime Research for Criminal Suspect Prioritization

Abstract

This paper considers a suspect prioritization technique and tests its validity using a sample of commercial armed robbery offences from St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada. The proposed technique is empirically grounded in criminal careers and journey‐to‐crime research. Suspects with a previous criminal history are selected and ranked in ascending order by the distance they live from the location of the crime in question, with the nearest suspect given highest priority. Effectiveness is measured by the percentage of ranked suspects that needs to be searched before the offender is identified. Results show that 65% of the robbers were identified in the top 10% of ranked suspects. Limitations and proposed refinements are discussed in terms of future prioritization strategies and policing research.

Keywords:

• Police
• Suspect Prioritization
• Criminal Careers
• Journey‐to‐Crime
• Robbery
• Decision‐Making

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by an Overseas Research Scholarship awarded to the first author by the Overseas Research Students Award Scheme. We would like to thank Paul J. Taylor, Craig Bennell, and Ken Fowler for their insightful comments upon earlier versions of this paper.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Brent Snook

Brent Snook is an Assistant Professor in the Psychology Department at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His research interests involve the study of bounded rationality in forensic settings.

Michelle Wright

Michelle Wright is a PhD candidate in the School of Psychology at the University of Liverpool. Her major research interests include criminal consistency and offender spatial behavior.

John C. House

John C. House is a Sergeant in the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary, Canada presently in charge of major crime. His academic interests include offender profiling, evidence‐led policing, and major case leadership.

Laurence J. Alison

Laurence J. Alison is a Professor in the School of Psychology at the University of Liverpool, UK. His primary research interests include critical incident management, the use of experts, and deviant and/or criminal sexual behavior.