Catching a Serial Rapist: Hits and Misses in Criminal Profiling

Abstract

This paper presents a case story of police investigation of a case of serial rape, and the offender profile that was prepared to help identify the offender. The main focus is on the geographic profile, which was elaborated on the basis of theories about awareness area, activity space, and buffer zones for serial offenders. The theories match this specific case quite closely, but the suggestions submitted to the police were not precise enough to identify the rapist. Our offender profile is therefore contrasted with the explanations that the rapist himself gave us after his arrest on how he had sought out his victims. We find that assumptions about the means of transport the offender is using are of vital importance for the geographic profile. Input parameters given to the computer program determine the likely distance decay and the size of the buffer zone. The same data can result in different predictions if these parameters are changed. We recommend that geographic profiles should be supplemented with thorough on‐site observations, and discuss ways to improve police access to public and civil registers when the offender has no previous criminal record.

Keywords:

• Crime Mapping
• Geographic Profiling
• Rape
• Police Strategy

Notes

[1] The author of this paper is director of the Victim Assistance Service in Malaga, and coordinated the criminological profile that was elaborated. All employees in this office: Carmen García Ferrer, Maria Victoria Rosas Lozano, Miguel Angel Román Florido, and Maria Cheli Shaw participated in this task. The forensic psychologist we brought in as reinforcement from the Madrid tribunals, José Antonio Hernández Sánchez, elaborated most of the psychological profile.

[2] The suspect has been identified by DNA material and will plead guilty, but as of February 2004, the case has not yet come to trial.

[3] The midday break at most shops and offices in Malaga is from 2 to 5 p.m. They open again from 5 to 8 p.m.