467
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Forecasting project duration using risk-based earned duration management

&
Pages 3077-3087 | Published online: 02 Nov 2020
 

Abstract

Earned duration management (EDM) is an extension of earned value management (EVM) in which the schedule performance of the project is evaluated using time-based data with no dependency on project cost data. While the use of EDM leads to a more accurate and realistic performance evaluation of the project schedule, it, however, does not differentiate between critical and non-critical activities and their related risk factors. This can lead to misleading information in cases where critical activities are behind schedule. Accordingly, this paper presents a new risk-based earned duration management model (RBEDM) for monitoring and estimating schedule performance of projects considering critical activities only and their associated risk factors. The contribution of this research to the body of knowledge lies in its newly introduced risk adjustment factor (RAFcr) which quantifies the impact of future uncertainties associated with critical activities in estimating project duration at completion. The introduced risk adjustment factor addresses the main drawback of EDM for its reliance only in past performance data. A numerical example from the literature is utilized to highlight the limitations of the existing models and demonstrate the capability of the developed model in monitoring and estimating a more accurate and realistic schedule performance.

Disclosure statement

No potential competing interest was reported by the authors.

Data availability statement

Data generated or analyzed during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.

Additional information

Funding

The financial support provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant and Engage Grants (N01729 and N00807) and Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science, Concordia University (Grant VE0010) is highly acknowledged.

Log in via your institution

Log in to Taylor & Francis Online

PDF download + Online access

  • 48 hours access to article PDF & online version
  • Article PDF can be downloaded
  • Article PDF can be printed
USD 61.00 Add to cart

Issue Purchase

  • 30 days online access to complete issue
  • Article PDFs can be downloaded
  • Article PDFs can be printed
USD 158.00 Add to cart

* Local tax will be added as applicable

Related Research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.