Learning how to deal with uncertainty of flood risk in long‐term planning

Abstract

Long‐term planning in the context of Flood Risk Management (FRM) necessarily involves dealing with considerable uncertainties. In the past, there have been general doubts about the usefulness of long‐term plans as guiding frameworks for decision makers. Since the mid‐1990s, there has been a revival of long‐term planning to shape the future of European societies and cities. This revival will last in flood risk management only if the implications of dealing with uncertainty for practitioners can be specified. The paper explores learning as one reason to consider developments in the long run. It draws a distinction between exploiting what is already known and exploring what might come to be known in the future. Based upon theoretical reasoning and findings from case studies in London and Dresden, three recommendations to long‐term planners are derived to handle uncertainty in planning: (1) Balance learning to exploit a certain past and learning to explore uncertain futures, (2) Use forums for learning about uncertainties in long‐term strategies of FRM, and (3) Think of dealing with uncertainty in long‐term FRM as a social process prone to interruption, irrelevance for ongoing decision making, and post‐disaster politics.

Keywords:

• Flood risk management
• long‐term planning
• uncertainty
• organizational learning
• exploration
• exploitation
• strategy development