Hydrological projections of fluvial floods in the Uruguay and Paraná basins under different climate change scenarios

Abstract

Hydrological modelling with climate scenario data are used to develop projections of changes in frequency and duration of flood events in the margins of the lower sections of the Paraná and Uruguay Rivers in La Plata Basin for the twenty-first century. Discharges were simulated with the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model considering the statistically bias corrected daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall outputs from five regional climate models and different emission scenarios. Results show that although it is expected that compared to the current conditions the temperature would rise and precipitation would have a slight increase in La Plata Basin during the present century, more frequent and lasting fluvial flooding events in the lower Paraná and Uruguay basins could be expected. However, the range of results derived from different climate models though consistent in sign, indicate that the uncertainty is large.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• Paraná River
• Uruguay River
• flooding
• future scenarios

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under the Grant Agreement No 212492, the University of Buenos Aires UBACYT- 20020100100803, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas PIP2009-00444 and Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica PICT07-00400. We would like to thank the CPTEC/INPE for providing the PRECIS model outputs for South America.