A review of current approaches to radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasts

ABSTRACT

Short-term radar-based forecasts of precipitation can be achieved through the implementation of nowcasting models, essentially based on the rainfall extrapolation from a series of consecutive radar scans. Recent advances in this field include the development of hybrid models, aimed at merging the benefits of radar nowcasting and numerical weather prediction models, and probabilistic systems, aimed at addressing the sources of uncertainty in radar rainfall forecasts by means of ensembles. This paper provides an overview of radar nowcasting methods and approaches, with an emphasis on recent developments in this field.

Keywords:

• QPF
• nowcasting
• hybrid models
• ensembles
• probabilistic
• forecasting

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the UKMO for providing the radar data and the STEPS model, and the Environment Agency for providing hydrological data.

Funding

The authors would also like to acknowledge the support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [grant number EP/I012222/1].