Multi-annual variability of streamflow in La Plata Basin. Part II: simulations for the twenty-first century

ABSTRACT

Water resources availability presents a high degree of uncertainty in the context of climate change. In this study, the multi-year variability of simulated streamflow for three rivers (Paraná, Uruguay and Negro) in the La Plata Basin (LPB) in the period 1991–2098 is analysed. Simulated streamflow for that period were produced in a two-stage process involving a regional climate model (RCM) and a distributed hydrology model (VIC (variable infiltration capacity)). Outputs from two RCMs (PROMES [Spanish acronym for mesoscale forecast] and RCA [Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model]) were used in order to assess the sensitivity of the results to different models. Various spectral methods (singular spectrum analysis, maximum entropy method and multi-taper method) were used in order to detect low-frequency variability modes and preferred quasi-periodicities for annual and seasonal simulated time series. Both simulations generate larger runoff for the twenty-first century than those observed for the twentieth century for the three rivers. For annual time series, the variability in timescales longer than 30 years is detected by one of the simulations for the three rivers, and only weakly for the Negro River in the other. Seasonal variations of the preferred modes of multi-annual variability are apparent. The River Paraná shows a persistent 10-year period during most of the year in the PROMES-VIC simulation. No LFV modes were found for any trimester in any river for PROMES-VIC, while for RCA-VIC simulations, these appeared in austral summer (Negro and Uruguay rivers) or early winter (Paraná River). A striking finding, both for annual and seasonal simulated time series, is the conspicuous presence of pseudo-periods in the 2.5–5 years band that had already been captured in the observed 20th streamflow time series [Maciel, F., Díaz, A., and Terra, R., 2013. Multi-annual variability of streamflow in La Plata Basin. Part I: observations and links to global climate. International Journal of River Basin Management, 11 (4), 345–360.]. This pattern is probably linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These results imply that the well-known relationships between ENSO and precipitation and streamflow anomalies in the LPB are expected to prevail during the twenty-first century.

Keywords:

• Multi-annual streamflow variability
• climate and hydrology models
• spectral methods
• climate change

Acknowledgements

The authors have used the SSA-MTM Toolkit for Spectral Analysis, distributed by the SSA-MTM Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles (http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/ssa/). The authors are grateful to two anonymous reviewers, whose comments and suggestions helped to improve the quality of the manuscript.

Funding

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) [grant agreement no. 212492 (CLARIS LPB. A Europe–South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin)].