International assessment of future low-flow regimes and their impact on three water-related sectors in the Meuse basin – a collaborative approach

ABSTRACT

There is a wide recognition of the watershed scale as the right scale for global water management, notably in the context of the water framework directive. Hence, it often refers to international management and therefore to various pre-existing regional management tools, models or even objectives. In this study, we aim at describing the collaborative assessment of climate change's effect on low-flow regime and the consequences on three water-related sectors: drinking water production, agriculture and electricity production. The paper highlights the choices that were made during the study that involved scientific teams, managers and stakeholders from the four main countries of the Meuse Basin. It shows that the methodological choices were operational and aimed at preserving existing methods and knowledge within each country. They led to hydrological scenarios comparable to the main available ensemble approaches and to methodologies well accepted within the concerned countries. The results of the project highlight and quantify the water scarcity that the three sectors will have to face by the end of the century mainly regarding the electricity production. They also show that common allocation rules are necessary to manage water demand during future low-flow periods.

Keywords:

• Climate change impacts
• Meuse
• low flows
• agriculture
• electricity sector
• drinking water
• international approach

Acknowledgements

I would like acknowledge the International Meuse Commission for providing the maps and authorization to publish them.

Funding

This research project was funded by the Interreg IVB NWE program through the AMICE project (Adaptation of the Meuse to the Impacts of Climate Evolutions): www.amiceproject.eu.