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ABSTRACT
The potential impact of several downscaled climate simulations (DCS) on high precipitation in Spain during the twenty-first century has been investigated. Two types of precipitation time series, derived from DCS, were used: annual maximum daily precipitation (AMDP) and high precipitation index (R95 T). Statistical tests were applied to detect significant trends (Mann-Kendall test), changes in median (Wilcoxon test), and changes in variance (Fligner-Killeen test), as well as the regional significance of these changes (Binomial test). Furthermore, the SQRT-et-max distribution was adjusted to quantify changes in the AMDP frequency. In general, no clear trends or changes in median, variability or frequency were detected in the AMDP series. R95 T series, though, showed some signs of positive trends and median increments. Thus, a lack of clear patterns of change in high precipitation events may be concluded. Finally, two sources of uncertainty are worth highlighting: the bias of the DCS values when compared with observed data, and the variability among the different DCS results.
Acknowledgements
Our acknowledgements to the Spanish Office for Climate Change and to the General Sub-Directorate of Planning and Sustainable Use of Water of the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs, and to the Spanish Meteorological Agency for providing the information necessary for the development of this work. Also, to all the people who contribute to the GIS GRASS freeware software, and to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive and insightful comments.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
ORCID
Luis M. Barranco http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6630-6342