Risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales: challenges in execution and implementation

Abstract

In this paper we describe the execution of a risk-based analysis on a simple, small-scale water resources planning problem. We aim to understand whether a risk-based approach could underpin the regulated water resources planning process in England and Wales. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of the approach and identify clear benefits over the conventional planning methods. We also identify several nontrivial challenges for scaling up and caution against the view that better quality decisions would emerge naturally from risk-based analyses. Useful future research might focus on: (1) the development of practical methodologies for applying these approaches to larger, more complex resource zones; (2) identifying and overcoming problems associated with regulating a risk-based water resources planning process; and (3) developing methods of economic options appraisal that can deploy the outputs of a risk-based analysis to inform planning decisions.

Keywords:

• stochastic hydrology
• risk
• climate uncertainty
• water resources system
• drought
• uncertainty analysis

Additional information

Funding

This work was financially supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, United Utilities PLC, Anglian Water and Severn Trent Water through the STREAM Industrial Doctorate Centre [grant number EP/G037094/1]. We thank Oxford Scientific Software Ltd (www.oxscisoft.com/Aquator) for providing a license to use Aquator for the purpose of this study. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of any of the organisations mentioned above.