Simulating the effects of climate change, economic and urban planning scenarios on urban runoff patterns of a metropolitan region

Abstract

Urban development and climate change are expected to have significant effects on urban stormwater runoff. In this study, the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) is applied to Dublin, Ireland, to explore urban runoff patterns under varying urban growth and climate scenarios. Results show that annual urban runoff could decrease by 3.0% from climate change and monthly runoff could increase by 30% in winter and decrease by 28% in summer. Results also indicate that urban growth could increase annual runoff by up to 15%. The combined effect of climatic and land-use change generated runoff may potentially increase annual totals from between 2.9% to 21%. Monthly changes in runoff totals could increase by up to 57%. Accommodating these variations in runoff between the scenarios, flexible decentralised systems such as green roofs and pervious pavements, have a vital role in increasing the adaptability and long term sustainability of water infrastructure.

Keywords::

• urban development
• urban runoff
• urban water cycle
• DUWSiM
• land use

Acknowledgements

The authors would also like to thank the Dublin City, South Dublin, Dun Laoghaire Rathdown and Fingal City councils as well as RPS Ireland and MET Eireann for making available the data required for this project.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

^1. In the recovery scenario the Irish Economy is expected to reach full employment by 2025 (defined as an unemployment rate of 4%) and therefore from 2025 the annual increase in job numbers is expected to diminish and is not linear.

^2. Reduction in urban land use is treated as unused land with the same hydrological properties as the previous land use type.

Additional information

Funding

This study is funded by the Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and Technology (IRCSET).