Abstract
It is essential to predict the lifetime of buried pipelines since they are not easily accessible for inspection. In this study a time-dependent, non-linear state model has been introduced for the structural analysis of corrosion affected steel water pipes, stressed by external forces. Using limit state concept, the simultaneous effect of externally applied loading and material corrosion are considered through failure modes. A non-linear corrosion model is used to simulate the loss of pipe wall thickness during the operation period. In order to take the uncertainty associated with the design and environmental variables into account, a Monte Carlo simulation technique has been adopted using MATLAB. A parametric sensitivity analysis is also carried out to measure the effectiveness of each parameter on the probability of pipe failure. Results obtained for a steel water pipeline in Eastern Sydney are presented and discussed.