Characterizing the relationship between urban sprawl and water demand in Dodoma Urban District, Tanzania: 1992–2029

ABSTRACT

Rapid urban growth is making the planning of water resources increasingly uncertain, highlighting the need for plausible forecasts of water demand to achieve optimum allocation among competing uses. This study applies a population balance model and statistical modelling to investigate the relationship between water demand and urban sprawl in Dodoma Urban District in Tanzania. The findings revealed a positive but complex and non-linear relationship that is best characterized by a quadratic model: Predicted water demand (in million m³) = −1.206 + 0.285*(Urban growth in km²) – 0.002*(Urban growth in km²)squared. The model is a first step in characterizing the determinants of water demand for better planning and management of scarce water resources in a data-constrained but rapidly urbanizing region. We recommend striking a balance between desired future urban growth and projected water demand and prioritizing financial investments to develop alternative water supply sources.

KEYWORDS:

• Urban sprawl
• water demand
• population
• statistical modelling
• urbanization

Acknowledgements

This paper is based upon collaboration supported by the Institute of International Education (IIE) through the Carnegie African Diaspora Fellowship Program (CADFP), a scholar fellowship program for educational projects at African higher education institutions under Project ID: PS00241640. The opinions in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agency.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).