Application of Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulations for developing pavement performance models for urban network management

Abstract

Existing performance models developed for interurban pavements are not applicable to urban pavements due to differences in traffic demands and deterioration trends. The objective of the study was to develop performance models for the management of urban pavement networks. Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation were applied to account for the probabilistic nature of pavements deterioration over time, using data collected in the field. One of the advantages of this methodology is that it can be used by local agencies with scarce technical resources and historical data. Eight performance models were developed and successfully validated for asphalt and concrete pavements in humid, dry and Mediterranean climates with different functional hierarchies. The resulting models evidence the impact of design, traffic demand, climate and construction standards on urban pavements performance. Predicted service life of asphalt and concrete pavements in primary networks are consistent with design standards. However, pavements in secondary and local networks present shorter and longer service life compared to design life, respectively. Climate is a relevant factor for asphalt pavements, where higher deterioration was observed compared to that expected. Opposite to this, no relevant differences between design and performance can be attributed to climate in concrete pavements.

Keywords:

• Markov chains
• urban pavements
• performance models
• network level analysis
• pavement management
• probabilistic models
• transportation engineering

Acknowledgements

The research team acknowledges Fondef/Conicyt for funding the project D09I1018 “Research and Development of Solutions for Urban Pavement Management in Chile”, and the participating agencies: Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (MINVU), Regional Government of the Metropolitan Region (GORE), the Municipality of Santiago and the Municipality of Macul. Additionally, the project has been advised by the Centre for Pavement and Transportation Technology (CPATT) at the University of Waterloo, Canada. Furthermore, the support of the National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017 is sincerely appreciated. Moreover, the research team recognises the support of the VRI-PUC Scholarship for doctoral studies.