Weather conditions and electoral outcomes in Taiwan

* Accepted by Hong Hwang upon recommendation by Toshihiro Matsumura.

Abstract

This paper examines the electoral outcomes in legislative elections in Taiwan, using the weather characteristics on election day as the independent variable. The results show that weather matters for voter turnout. Moreover, rainfall on election day yields no marginal effects on the vote share of the two main parties, but benefits other small parties inclined to the right. This result responds to the argument that conservative parties benefit from lower turnout, and supplements the literature by showing that lower turnout caused by weather also yields different impacts on each political party.

Keywords:

• Weather
• rainfall
• election
• turnout
• party vote share

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Funding

This work was supported by the Research Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences at the Ministry of Science and Technology [grant number Most 104-2420-H-002-016-MY3-Y10409.

Acknowledgment

I would also like to thank Kong-Pin Chen for his advice. In addition, I would like to thank participants of the 2016 Taiwan Economic Research, Academia Sinica for helpful comments.

Notes

* Accepted by Hong Hwang upon recommendation by Toshihiro Matsumura.

1. Hinnerich and Pettersson-Lidbom (2014) study the case in Sweden and find that an increase in public-welfare transfers was targeted to organized citizens, such as unemployed people and their family, under the representative democracy. Artés (2014) finds that higher unemployment increases turnout, and that increases in unemployment benefit the conservative party, which may be perceived as being more focused in improving the economy.

2. The individual’s contribution to political action in representative system is minute when it is in a majority system and the electorate is large. Therefore, the benefits of turnout tends to be small and determined ex ante. Nevertheless, the result is different under direct democracy. Feld and Kirchgässner (2000) find that the opportunity of deciding for themselves on political issues provides citizens with incentives to enjoy direct democratic rights. As a result, public expenditure and public debt are found to be lower because citizens are better informed and politicians are less likely to pursue their personal interests.

3. The turnout effect on policy outcomes have been investigated based on the conventional turnout effect model. León (2017) examines the context in Peru and finds that the introduction of compulsory voting laws increase turnout but does not change aggregate preferences for specific policies because the additional voters are mostly uninformed and non-partisan.

4. According to the Central Election Commission,

The compilation of voter lists is the statutory duty of government agents. With the exception of citizens residing overseas during the Presidential and Vice Presidential election, citizens do not have to register to vote. Unless incompetence has been declared, citizens, aged 20 or above, who have resided in their respective constituencies for a stipulated period, are entitled to vote. Their records are automatically filed by Household Registration Officers at least 20 days prior to the Election day. There are approximately eighteen million voters throughout the country, which is around three fourths of the population.

5. The clinical reports indicate that the incidence of stroke-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and kidney morbidity is much higher under a higher temperature in summer and under a lower temperature in winter (e.g. Woodhouse, Khaw, and Plummer 1993; Chen, Chang, and Su 1995; Lin et al. 2013), As a result, subjects with CVD history, especially for the cohort above 65 years old, are suggested to pay more attention to the lower temperature in winter.

6. There were 22 counties in Taiwan, excluding Kinmen County, Lienchiang, Penghu County, before the city-county consolidation in 2010. Since then, four new special municipalities have been created, including New Taipei City (which transitioned from Taipei County), Taichung City (which resulted from consolidating Taichung City and Taichung County), Tainan City (which resulted from consolidating Tainan City and Tainan County), and Kaohsiung City (which resulted from consolidating Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County).

7. The main task of the DBAR can be divided into three parts: (1) collect relevant meteorological data from around the world, (2) design data decoding and reading programs, and (3) provide information and advisory services. Since its inception, researchers have been allowed to devote most of their time to research, instead of decoding data.

8. The weather effect is robust after controlling for the lagged voter turnout. The results are available from the author upon request.

9. Gomez, Hansford, and Krause (2007) found that one inch of rain on election day lowers turnout by 0.88% points. Artés (2014) found that the amount of rainfall on election day reduced turnout by approximately 0.053% points per mm of rain.

10. The results are available from the author upon request.

11. The growing polarization of voters on the unification policy with the mainland starts in 2000 when the DPP won the President Election. Since then, Pan-Blue Parties containing the KMT, the PFP, and the NP are standing for the unification policy, while Pan-Green Parties containing the DPP and the TSU are standing against the policy.

12. The February 28th Incidence was an island-wide revolt caused by the mismanagement of a corrupt KMT governor and the scavenging KMT troops that took over the island after the surrender of the Japanese after World War II. This incidence caused thirty to sixty thousands civilians being killed indiscriminately. The flashpoint came on February 27, 1947 in Taipei when a dispute between a female cigarette vendor and an anti-smuggling officer triggered civil disorder and rose in rebellion. The uprising endured for days and put down by the military.

13. Although landlords whose farmland has been expropriated due to a series of agrarian reforms in the twentieth century are also likely to protest KMT, this group is mostly located in the southern Taiwan and is likely to be captured by the county fixed effect and Green in this study even if no detailed data are provided.