The elusive reality of efficacy–performance cycles in basketball shooting: An analysis of players’ performance under invariant conditions

Abstract

The current work questions the putative tendency for success to be self-promoting in a non-competitive practice setting. Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky's [(1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295–314. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6] classic controlled shooting experiment in basketball is replicated and extended to include players' efficacy judgments before taking the shots, according to the conditions outlined by Bandura [(1997). Self-efficacy: The exercise of control. New York, NY: Freeman]. Fifty-eight basketball players participated in three experimental sessions. The results show that players' competency expectations reflected a consistent belief in the existence of past performance–performance cycles. However, even when asked directly about their subjective perceptions of success, the players' sense of efficacy did not predict hits or misses. It was also demonstrated that even under invariant conditions, where such correlations should be even higher according to Bandura's line of reasoning, the outcomes of successive shots were statistically independent, for both expert players and for novices. These findings provide additional support for Gilovich et al.'s seminal results and are rather challenging to Bandura's theory of self-efficacy.

Keywords:

• hot hand
• sequential dependence
• self-efficacy
• decision-making
• sport

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the assistance and cooperation provided by coaches Erez Bittman, Erez Edelstein, Gilad Katz, Oded Nachman, and Yoram Haroush, and all members of the national Olympic basketball team, during the running of the experiments. This research project could not have been conducted without their support and willingness to contribute something extra to the game. We appreciate the advice and assistance provided by coaches Israel Baruch and Vico Haddad during the experiments with the recreational players. We also thank Professor Ofer Azar for his valuable comments on a previous version of this paper.