Ageing societies and physical activity

In March 2017, Eurostat, the statistical department of the European Union, released new statistics about the fertility rate in European countries (Eurostat, 2017a). The average fertility rate in EU countries of 1.46 in 2001 rose to 1.58 in 2015, and is expected to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Despite this development, the population of European countries is still aging. Given Eurostat’s compilation of data on the expected demographic change in Europe, most European countries will face a drastic demographic change over the next 45 years (Eurostat, 2017b). Particularly, the proportion of people who are 64 years and older is expected to rise drastically. Apparently, the ageing of populations will only be slightly moderated by migration processes. To explain this by taking the example of Germany: Even though statisticians of the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis, 2017) expect a continuous net immigration rate of more than 200,000 people per year (what would – if nothing changes – total up to around 9 Mio. immigrants until 2060), this will only have a slightly hindering effect on the ageing of Germany’s society. Given Eurostat’s prognoses, all age groups over 64 years in Germany will significantly grow proportionally over the next 40 years, the number of over 100 year olds will even increase from 17,474 in 2015 to 137,541 in 2060 (Eurostat, 2017b). Due to this development, the ratio between young and old will dramatically shift. According to calculations of Olaf Gersemann on the basis of Eurostat’s data, for example, the amount of the over 64-year olds in Germany in relation to the 15–64-year-old population will increase from around 32% in 2015 to 55% in 2060 (Gersemann, 2017). The population development in Italy, Spain, and also in more slowly ageing countries such as the UK, will have a similar progression.

Considering these numbers, it could be expected that the ageing of societies is a major topic in sociological research. However, while ageing in general and the elderly in particular have been topics of health research for a long time, they are comparably young objects of sociological research. In the sociology of sport and physical activity, research on ageing is still the exception. Since 2004, the European Journal for Sport and Society, for example, has published only a handful of articles that somehow address ageing or the elderly. Most of these articles deal with sport participation, and discuss age as one determinant among many others. Only once has demographic change been the explicit topic of an article; it dealt with the question of whether and ‘to what extent sport participation in Germany depends on demographic and economic parameters’ (Breuer & Wicker, 2008, 33).

The obvious lack of interest of sport sociologists in the demographic change is surprising, at least if one thinks about the potential consequences of demographic ageing. In this regard, it has to be considered that Eurostat’s picture about the ‘age-burden’ of European societies is not even an extreme prognosis, compared to the analyses of other researchers in this field.

A more drastic estimation can be deduced from the studies of the distinguished population researchers Jim Oeppen from Cambridge University, UK, and James Vaupel, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. The calculations of their research group are based on the observation that ‘female life expectancy in the record-holding country has risen for 160 years at a steady pace of almost 3 months per year’ (Oeppen & Vaupel, 2002, 1029). This means: with every year a woman in the record-holding country (Japan) lives, her life-expectancy increases around three months. A similar trend is also expected for European countries. Oeppen & Vaupel state that nothing speaks against the hypothesis that this trend will continue in the next decades. They therefore assume that around 2062, the country with the highest life-expectancy worldwide will cross the threshold of an average (!) life-expectancy of 100 years. To relate this trend to European countries: Women who live in Spain, France, Italy, or Switzerland have a current average life-expectancy of around 86 years (http://wko.at.statistik/eu/euroo). If the assumption of Oeppen and Vaupel comes true, the average life-expectancy of women in Spain, France, Italy, or Switzerland in 2060 will be around 97 years.

Many people will react positively to these news, and say: ‘We will live longer. That’s good, isn’t it?’ And indeed, for the individual it definitely is. At least as long as the life-quality of the elderly in European countries stays as high as it is today. In Germany, for example, the over 65-population has currently a very good financial background, a high degree of life satisfaction, and a relatively good health, according to a recent report of the Allensbach-Institute, one of the leading German population research institutes (Generali Deutschland AG, 2017).

Does this mean that there is no need to meet (demographic) trouble halfway? In most political agendas of national governments in Europe, this mindset seems to be dominant. However, the impression that demographic change does not have to be considered seriously is deceptive. Economists warn that this state of well-being and satisfaction will not last forever. The potentially problematic consequences of the aging of society are manifold. With respect to national economics, one of the most relevant consequences of demographic ageing in Europe concerns retirement. In most European countries, the age of retirement is currently between 58 and 65 years. The calculation is easy: the higher the life-expectancy gets, the longer pensions will have to be paid for the average retiree.

The main question in this regard is: Can welfare states deal with ageing populations without, for example, to increase the retirement age or even drastically reduce welfare spending? Far-sighted researchers, such as James Vaupel, would perhaps answer that they cannot – not least because a considerable percentage of the population between 15 and 65 years does not work at all. Vaupel and Loichinger reported in 2010 (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, 2010) that 45-year-old people in Germany only worked 30 hours per week on average, while 60-year-old people did not work more than 8 hours per week on average. In order to guarantee that the total of working hours in Germany would be the same in 2025, 50–65-year olds would have to work 30 hours on average, 60–65-year olds 20 hours, and 66–70-year olds around 10 hours per week. In 2060, when the over 64-year-old population group will be proportionally much larger, the current amount of pension expenditures would drastically fall short of being enough to secure the current pension schemes.

Against the background of imminent demographic changes, the financial burden of social systems will be massive, particularly in ageing countries that have a relatively high amount of social expenditure compared to the national gross domestic product (GDP), such as Germany, Portugal, Italy or Spain. As a last consequence, ageing of society could boost the already observable tendencies towards a two-tier society, where only those who can afford to provide for their old age today can afford health care and economic security in the future, while the rest would have to live in precarious conditions.

What has the ageing society to do with sports and physical activity? Some health economists would perhaps say that ageing societies have to make every effort to avoid that people get sick, since in ageing societies one has to expect an increasing rate of chronic degenerative diseases. On the other hand, the economies in ageing countries are dependent on the work ability of the elderly. From this perspective, physical activity could be a relatively cheap medium of keeping the elderly both healthy and ‘functioning’. The health-related benefits of physical activity regarding cardiovascular diseases (Thompson et al., 2003), type 2 diabetes (Hu et al., 2001; Wen et al., 2011), and cancer (Friedenreich & Cust, 2008; Wolin et al., 2009) are well documented. These benefits are not only limited to moderate physical activity. Over the last years, a number of studies have also found evidence for health promotive effects of vigorous sport activities. Samitz, Egger, and Zwahlen (2011) conclude in a meta-analysis of cohort studies that the mortality risk is proportionally reduced per time unit of vigorous exercise. Furthermore, Williams (2010) shows that higher doses of running exercise are related to a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease. Besides health promotion, ageing societies can benefit from sport and physical activity in many more ways. Positive effects of sport and physical activity on mental well-being, development of personal resources, the sense of achievement, and social networks have been shown in many studies (Allender, Cowburn, & Foster, 2006; Krug et al., 2013).

However, according to WHO, not even a third of European adults report sufficient physical activity (Cavill, Kahlmeier, & Racioppi, 2006). In this regard, a recent systematic literature review ranks rapidly ageing countries such as Italy, Portugal, and Spain among the less active countries (Loyen et al., 2016). Furthermore, national statistics show an age-related decline of the percentage of sufficiently active people. Although the exact percentage of sufficiently active people in different age-groups in Europe is currently unknown (Loyen et al., 2016), the number of regularly physically active people over 65 is expected to be significantly lower than the general population’s average.

What can sport sociology do in this regard? Sport sociology can contribute significantly to close the still existing research gap regarding the socio-cultural barriers to and structural preconditions of sport and physical activity. Particularly, studies that analyse the activity hindering and promoting effects of social networks, neighbourhoods, and milieus in detail are needed to investigate how the elderly can be motivated to sustainably engage in sport and physical activity. Sport sociology can also analyse the social supportive potentials of sport settings. For example, voluntary sport organisations could play a very important role in coping with challenges of demographic ageing, particularly with regard to fostering social support by and for the elderly. Sport sociological research on ageing societies is therefore more needed than ever. Ideally, it could contribute to an understanding of ageing societies, in which the elderly are considered as a resource of aid and self-help and not primarily as a burden.