An interactive, multivariate projection model for the alignment of teacher demand and supply for schools in the Gauteng Province of South Africa: A disaggregated approach

Abstract

This article reports on the conceptualisation of a multivariate interactive computerised teacher demand and supply decision support model of projection for the Further Education and Training (FET) band of public schools for the Gauteng Province of South Africa. This model was conceptualised with a view to enabling policy makers to make projections that estimate aggregate or disaggregate teacher supply and demand. A reductionist methodological approach was used in this inquiry, with the intention of reducing the ideas surrounding teacher supply and demand into a discrete set of variables reflected in a multivariate model. It also reflects a deterministic philosophy of cause and effect, as variables are manipulated within the model. Knowledge is developed in this inquiry through the development of multiple numeric measures of the objective reality of teacher supply and demand. The main contribution of this inquiry is the computerised disaggregated teacher supply and demand projection model – the model not only contributes to the knowledge base of educational planning and forecasting, but also provides a clearer picture of the complex variables involved in teacher supply and demand.

Keywords:

• Multivariate projection model
• teacher demand
• teacher supply